The recent halt in US foreign aid funding, enacted by the Trump administration, threatens to significantly increase the number of infants infected with HIV globally, according to recent modeling. The suspension, effective January 20 through a presidential executive order, and subsequent stop-work order from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have put significant strain on global health initiatives, leading to the closure of over a third of HIV service providers worldwide.
This disruption in funding has led to widespread unavailability of essential HIV treatments and related health services, impacting hundreds of thousands of people, particularly in low-income countries that heavily rely on US assistance. Women and children are notably affected, with sharp declines in access to cervical cancer screenings and gender-based violence services also reported.
Despite a waiver intended to mitigate the immediate effects by allowing some life-saving humanitarian aid to continue, the impact has been minimal, with only a small fraction of organizations receiving funds necessary to restart their services. As a result, many health programs previously supported by the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) face massive disruptions, posing a severe risk to those dependent on them.
Modeling data suggests a dramatic rise in HIV infections among infants, estimating 1,400 new cases daily, alongside widespread impacts on women’s health, as vital services remain suspended. The funding crisis leaves many organizations scrambling to secure alternative sources of support to continue their lifesaving work. In addition, a broad range of health-related services, including mental health initiatives and infectious disease responses, are facing steep challenges, with a troubling percentage of beneficiaries set to lose access to support in the coming months.
Meanwhile, ongoing assessments in countries like Colombia, Kenya, and Nepal reveal that vulnerable groups, including women, children, and marginalized communities, are disproportionately affected by these funding cuts. The cancellation of substantial portions of USAID programs, as recently confirmed by Secretary Rubio after an institutional review, compounds these adverse outcomes, placing long-term gains in global health, poverty reduction, and gender equality at significant risk of reversal.
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